All-time extremes reached for Bitcoin, major low levels across multiple indicators
Another week down and another 2018 low for Bitcoin. Over the past 35 trade days, Bitcoin has lost -51.82% of its value. But the current levels on multiple timeframes are showing all-time extremes.
Bitcoin Weekly Ichimoku Chart
Frustrating all Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bulls, Bitcoin continues to print new 2018 lows, this time nearly trading below the 3k value area. Volume also continues to drop, with the current week showing less than 50% of the prior trading week and the lowest traded volume over the past 5 weeks. The distance price is currently at is well below the bottom of the cloud which sits at 10,500 value area. The Kijun-Sen sits at the 5800 value area. This is important because the current range between price and the Kijun-Sen is near the extreme range that Bitcoin trades before it snaps back to test the Kijun-Sen as resistance. Any move lower will increase both the probability of move higher and the probability of violent move higher. The Volume Profile is showing there is one more low volume node to fill between 3000 and 2800. The RSI has dipped into the default oversold category for the first time ever, and the Composite Index continues to show bullish divergence from the low back on February 5th to the current week.
Bitcoin Daily Ichimoku Chart
The daily chart is showing an interesting level here. The current distance from the daily candlestick to the daily Kijun-Sen level is the largest percentage distance in Bitcoin’s history. The cloud ahead is getting thicker and showing some more resistance – but it is important to remember that the swiftness of the move down to create such a large gap between price and Kijun-Sen was not a sustained move down with broad market participation, rather it was the work of some large entities. The RSI on the daily chart has been in the oversold level now for a full month – never has that happened before. And both the RSI and the Composite Index are showing a bullish divergence that is over 30 days.
Bitcoin 4-hour Ichimoku Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a shared condition we’ve seen on the weekly and the daily: extended distance between price and the Kijun-Sen. Remember, we need to think of price attached to the Kijun-Sen by a rubber band – the further price moves from that line, the faster the ‘snap back’. The weekly chart is showing that condition, the daily chart is showing that condition and now the 4-hour chart is showing that same condition. We could witness and even deeper move away from the Kijun-Sen because the low volume node is a hairs-width away from being traded against. The move down would be fast – and any bounce would more than likely be just as fast. It is important to note that participation has dropped significantly and that the broad decrease in trading volume means that big players are able to move this market lower without much resistance. Once there is another large player(s) who decides to trade to the inverse of the broader big sellers, we’ll encounter the proverbial unstoppable force VS an immovable object.