Bitcoin and Ethereum December Ichimoku Analysis
As we approach the end of December and 2019, a review of the current month can help us forecast what price levels are important over the next thirty to ninety days.
Bitcoin (BTC) Monthly Analysis
Top of Cloud (Senkou Span A): 3503.47
Bottom of Cloud (Senkou Span B): 3256.39
Unless there is a major change on the monthly chart for Bitcoin, then it’s monthly close will remain bullish, at least according to the monthly Ichimoku chart it is still bullish. Bitstamp provides the data for Bitcoin’s historical chart. The first time that we saw price trading with a current Cloud was in January 2018. And while the enter cryptocurrency market suffered the longest and strongest bear market from December 2017 to February 2018 (altcoins are still in a bear market, lasting now over two years), Bitcoin has remained above the monthly Cloud for the entirety of that time. While it would be very unlikely, if Bitcoin were to drop lower, then there is a shared support level at the current top and bottom of the Cloud. There is a somewhat shared value area of support with the Cloud and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 4450. January 2020 will see the top and bottom of the Cloud leap higher to 5979.08 for the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) and 5740 for the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span B). Looking beyond January 2020, if Bitcoin is to remain in a bullish condition on the monthly chart and remain above the Cloud, then we will need to see it Bitcoin remain above the 10250 value area in February 2020.
Top of Cloud, 3-week (Senkou Span B): 710.77
Bottom of Cloud, 3-week (Senkou Span A): 269.45
While Bitcoin has been trading entirely above the monthly Cloud since the first monthly Cloud appeared on its chart, Ethereum is a different story. Ethereum has not traded long enough for it to print Senkou Span B on the monthly chart, only Senkou Span A. I’ve identified where the 3-week Cloud levels are at, and there is a major difference between where the 3-week Senkou Span A is at to the current monthly Senkou Span A. Ethereum has been trading below its monthly Kijun-Sen since June 2018 and below the monthly Tenkan-Sen since March 2018. Ethereum traded a whole month above the Tenkan-Sen (June 2019) before dropping back below it in July 2019. The monthly chart shows how bearish Ethereum has been over the seven months, dropping from a June 2019 high of 364.49 to the current swing low of 116.25 in the current month of December. And where Bitcoin could close up over +80% for 2019, Ethereum looks like it will close below the 2019 open for a nearly -11% loss for 2019. That is a very, very disappointing result for 2019, especially considering that Ethereum was up over +177.98% at one point! What adds to the extremely bearish nature of Ethereum’s chart is knowing how much it has to move into even marginally bullish conditions. If Ethereum is going to move above its monthly Tenkan-Sen, it needs to move up over +91.92%. In order to move above its monthly Kijun-Sen (shared value area with the 3-week Senkou Span B), then it needs to move an astonishing +209.56%. Ethereum is more likely to trade lower and create new 2-year lows than trade up to the monthly Tenkan-Sen.