Bitcoin (BTC) question: When will Bitcoin see $100,000?
This article will discuss why Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $100k in the future.
Last night, I was asked to answer a question on Quora titled: “When do you think Bitcoin will reach sex figures?” A large number of respondents said that it was laughable to think Bitcoin would move to six digits. Others derided cryptocurrency traders and investors as fools. There were even lazy comparisons to Bitcoin as modern day Tulip Mania. Tulip Mania last from roughly 1633 to 1637. Bitcoin has existed over twice as long and is now an established asset class – so the comparison doesn’t hold weight anymore. To answer the question of when Bitcoin will reach six digits, we need to do some analysis.
We need to address the silliness of thinking Bitcoin will never be worth $100,000. Why? Because of history and stuff.
April 2011 – Bitcoin was a scam, it wasn’t going to be worth anything. Bitcoin was barely $1.00. Bitcoin will never be double-digits. What happened?
Bitcoin moved to a high of $33.00
January 2012 – Bitcoin was a scam, worthless. It was trading at $13. Bitcoin will never be triple-digits. What happened?
Bitcoin moved to a high of $266.00
January 2015 – Bitcoin isn’t safe. It isn’t a store of value. Mt. Gox proved crypto is a scam. Retail traders are morons, and people are being taken advantage of. Bitcoin was trading at $159.61. Bitcoin will never be quadruple digits. What happened?
Bitcoin moved to a high of $1,155.44
April 2017 – Bitcoin is a scam, no one wants it. Volume is fake. Value is fake. It’s fake. It will never be worth quintuple digits. What happened?
Bitcoin moved to the current all-time high of $19,870.62.
December 18 – Bitcoin is going to zero. It’s worthless. It’s over. Bitcoin was trading at $3,200. Bitcoin will never return to quintuple digits. What happened?
Bitcoin moved to the most recent swing high of $13,826.
January 2020 – Bitcoin has no value. No one will pay for a six-digit Bitcoin. Bitcoin will never be sextuple digits.
When do you think Bitcoin will reach six figures?
Finding future levels of price that are important and relevant is easy; finding the when is tricky. Bitcoin, like all financial instruments, follow cycles that are normal and natural. Another respondent mentioned astrology as a reason to deride analysts/traders who believe Bitcoin will be worth $100,000. To make a point, we can use astronomy/astrology (mostly the science of Astronomy, not the practice of astrology) and the natural cycles of planets to determine how something moves.
The blue vertical lines on Bitcoin’s daily chart above represent every 72-degrees of Venus. Stay with me here: Venus travels around the sun. It’s a circle (mostly), there is 360-degrees in a circle. If you divide a circle into five pieces, the equal division is 72 degrees. So you go 72, 144, 216, 288, and 360. If we put the dates of those divisions on a chart, the above chart is what we get. Why do so many important swing highs and lows show up on Bitcoin’s chart when Venus is 72-degrees? No idea. None. It just does.
I’ve done some detailed analysis on Bitcoin’s anniversary dates – this was a trade idea on TradingView I published on December 12th, 2018 calling for the reversal date of the bear market on December 17th, 2019. Bitcoin Anniversary date: Reversal December 17th, 2018 for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by captainquenta
On October 2nd, 2019, I published another idea pointing to Bitcoin needing to drop to the $6,500 value area (it was trading around $8,300 at the time) before rising to $25,500 around May 2020. Bitcoin Prediction: down to 6.5k, then 25.5k around May 2020 for COINBASE:BTCUSD by captainquenta
Anyway – how do we determine WHEN Bitcoin will be worth triple digits?
December and January are historically significant months for Bitcoin. The biggest swing lows and swing highs occur in these months. We also see June as an important stopping point for some of the other major swings.
The chart above is for the information below.
Listen, I’m a Gann based trader. Time is my primary analysis tool. Gann was big on cycles. He was big on numbers. Specific numbers were significant to his analysis. Many of his numbers are Biblical, due to Gann’s staunch faith. It is no surprise that he placed considerable emphasis on the numbers 7, 9, 12, and 144 (there are others). So it should be no surprise that, so far, the number 1440 is of extreme importance. Why? Let’s look.
February 6th, 2010 – the first official Bitcoin exchange launched. Why do I use this date as a starting point and not Bitcon’s white-paper date, genesis block date, or anything else before February 2010? Because in all of Gann’s work, when analyzing market cycles, the stock exchanges and their ‘birthday’ are used.
Fast forward 1440-days (the actual number is 1,396), and we get Bitcoin’s first important and significant all-time high around December 5th, 2013 – the Mt. Gox high.
From the Mt. Gox high in 2013, fast forward another 1440 (actually 1467) days to the current all-time high for Bitcoin on December 17th, 2017.
1440-days from December 17th, 2017? November 28th, 2021.
2020-2021 is a period where a significant number of Gann analysists and astronomical cycle theorists have knowingly or unknowingly come to a reasonably clear consensus: it sucks. Currency capitulation and bank closures are what is forecast for this time period. Depending on the analyst and forecaster, it all has to deal with money, access to cash, interest rate panics, and currency panics. We already see these things happen in South America and Africa. This is also the high of a speculation bubble that precedes a major crash and economic panic. The series of events goes like this:
2019 – extremely high stock prices (we’ve already seen this, new all-time highs in 2019).
2020 – Market panic cycle in late 2020, collapsing prices.
2021 – flat and low market prices, lowest prices in years.
2022 – massive money printing by central banks, enormous speculation, massive recovery rally through 2022, everyone thinks everything is going to be okay.
2023 – people are lulled into believing everything is fine.
2024 – economic panic cycle (2008, 1929, etc.).
So how doe this help us prepare for the future? We analyze the cycles. If we anticipate a continuation of the cycles we have seen before, then Bitcoin is less than a month away from an extremely important even: the last half of the 1440 cycle. Three key phases mark the final 720-days of the 1440-day cycle. First, is a return to a higher value with a markup period of Bitcoin printing higher highs and getting closer to its all-time high. The second is a series of fakeouts lower, a large number of bear-traps and weak handed longs getting liquidated near the all-time high. The third and final phase is the breach of the all-time high and the beginning of the public participation phase – a period where new all-time highs are continually printed between a 30 to 90-day period.
Ok, here’s my forecast:
Conservative, realistic estimate for Bitcoin to touch the $100,000 value area is around Late March – Early June 2021.