We have a lot to talk about, so let’s get right to it: Prepare for the next impulse wave and a violent move.
Depending on how long you have been trading/investing, the current value of Bitcoin (and the whole cryptosphere) is either frightening or really, really really exciting. Me, I am excited. I actually would like prices to retreat further. Let’s see what is forming here.
We need to examine this chart for a second. I am not the biggest fan of Elliot Waves. I think forecasting to them is like chasing straights or flushes in poker. I think they are too subjective and that the people who follow them are too strict with Elliot’s application. What I do like about Elliot Waves is that it compliments Gann.
Gann tells you what price area is going to hit next.
Elliot tells you far it will go.
The dark blue arrows represent the longer term impulse wave. Impulse 1 ended at the all-time high around 20,000. The first long-term corrective wave (where we are now) is on the down slanting blue arrow line. Remember, corrective waves move in 3 steps/waves. These corrective waves can be completed anywhere between now and 8000.
Ideally, we would get below the 10,000 level. We have conditions on a great many oscillators and trends to signal that this move is nearing completion. The greatest evidence we have of this is the massive influx of volume we have seen today. Today is the beginning of a New Moon (no moon in the sky). This represents very bearish sentiment going forward if an instrument is at a swing high. How does this apply to an instrument at a swing low? Depends. The most common price action is a trade range for at least 1 week until we get closer to the next Full Moon. However, in extreme conditions, we can get a full two-week cycle of buying during a New Moon that continues during the Full Moon (which is on January 31st, remember this). That’s four weeks of continued bullish momentum.
I also want you to notice that I have created day counts. Bitcoin likes to move in 30-day (give or take a few days) moves on the daily chart. This means that the current swing low is going to reverse anywhere between now and the next few days. I want to show you another view as well.
1. Same instrument, different chart setup. This highlighted area represents a powerful confluence zone. Let’s include the items from above.
- Indicative of the end of a corrective wave and beginning of a third impulse wave.
- Major volume returning.
- 10,000 is the heaviest support zone on the entire chart.
- The angle that is crossing up is the most powerful support angle.
- The vertical line at 1 represents the end of a time cycle and the start of a new one. This is a strong pivot area where prices often reverse the trend.
- The ending of a 30-day move.
- January 31st is right here and that is a new moon phase, a Full Moon. Which means that if an instrument is at or near a market bottom, there is a strong probability of a market going up.
- February 4th is a very important seasonal Gann Date. Many important tops and bottoms are found around this date. High chance of reversals.
How far will Bitcoin move on this reversal?
I have a target of $38,332 on or around April 12th, 2018.