Bitcoin, full moon, squares and consolidation
Bitcoin continues to trade in a fairly tight range. All of this Christmas week we have been stuck in a range and have had difficulty coming back above the 15000 level. We have been ping-ponging around areas since the drop last week. I have been posting about a rebound from this value area for the entirety of this week as well.
On the 31st of December, we have a new moon cycle (not a new moon, but a new cycle); a full moon. One of the Founding Fathers of Technical Analysis, W.D. Gann, was a fond practitioner of the lunacy cycle. He taught that market highs are generally found at new moons (when the sky is completely dark) and that full moons indicated we are at market lows. We will have a full moon on the 31st. This is an important indication of bullish momentum especially if we have reacted to a prior moon phase. Is it pure coincidence that the selloff of Bitcoin near all time highs at 20000 was also during a new moon? I encourage anyone to look at the price history of any instrument and see how often buying at full moons and shorting at new moons is profitable.
1. This brown arc is our second, but first double resistance arc in our new Gann square. Price has been reacting to this area as a resistance area and it continues to find difficulty piercing it and pushing higher. I drew some trendlines indicating that we have a triangle that is getting close to breaking out from this resistance arc (which then turns into support). This is also right in an area of significant resistance: the 15000 level and the 45-degree angle (green diagonal line) above it. The vertical fuschia line is the full moon beginning.
2. This is where we want price to return for some bullish momentum up. Price needs to push up here on some significant volume and some violent price action. Will this happen over the holiday weekend? That remains to be seen.
The probability of Bitcoin shooting up or down is equal at this current level. I have to follow the price action and the price history of Bitcoin. It is clearly still in an uptrend and it is entirely possible that these dips and a massive correction have just given us all a Christmas gift and a New Years deal.