Bitcoin Prediction: 25.5k around May 2020
Predictions of future price levels can be accomplished using Elliot Wave Theory and applying the corresponding Fibonacci extensions and retracement levels.
Bitcoin’s Elliot Wave Chart
There is a myriad of examples of Elliot Wave charts for Bitcoin. I’m sure my analysis deviates as much as it compliments other charts. For those of you unfamiliar with Elliot Wave, it is, in a nutshell, a method of identifying the major and minor swings in any market. Practitioners of Elliot Wave are as varied as any other style of analysis. Some (like me) use Elliot Wave as more of a guide and a visual cue to identifying swings. Others are very precise and dogmatic with their application – the best have an uncanny ability to accurately identify price zones that will be hit and what level they will retrace to. It is an honestly mind-blowing moment when an expert in Elliot projects out the 3rd, 4th and 5th legs of an impulse wave to an almost creepily accurate result. I am not, an expert, but I feel I have sufficient knowledge to apply the principles to Bitcoin’s chart.
The chart above shows the main cycle wave in dark blue, with the first wave occurring at the top of Bitcoin’s market in December of 2017. The second wave and first primary corrective wave end at the December 2018 low. Notice the confluence of the intermediate impulse wave lower which ends at wave 5 is also the end of the primary corrective wave (red) at C and the end of cycle wave 2 (Roman numeral II). That confluence zone then brings us to our most recent price action from the December 2018 lows. There is an intermediate impulse wave (black) that ends at the 2019 high in late June. The 2019 June high is also where the first wave of the first primary wave (Green) ends. That brings us to where we are now.
Prediction: Bitcoin trades lower to 6580, then makes new all-time highs
The chart above shows the forecasted price levels and approximate dates for Bitcoin. The location of where C and 2 are where we find the end of an intermediate corrective wave, which is wave 2 of the current primary impulse wave (green). The dotted line represents the forecasted price level and date range that I expect Bitcoin to move to the 6580 value area in late October 2019/Early November 2019. After that drop, we start on wave 3. Wave 3 is projected to move all the way to the $25,500 value area somewhere in late April/early May 2020. The value area is what is more important to me, not so much the date, that is more of an application of Gann Theory. The question I always asked when I saw this kind of price projection was: “How the heck did you get that number?” Well, it’s not random. That value area is actually taken from two value areas – one that is currently present and one that is projected to happen: The 2019 high in June and the project low of 6580. We draw a Fibonacci extension on these two levels and those extended levels become our future targets.
We know that the third wave is generally the longest wave, but it can’t be the shortest. We also know that the third wave is often the most expansive and most active. For those reasons, it is likely that price will not halt for long at the 1.618 Fibonacci level at 18331, but will instead extend beyond the all-time high and reach the 2.618 Fibonacci targets at $25,582. Where does price move from there? Well, we’ll tackle that when/if that occurs, but a pullback down to the 38.2% retracement at $18,000 is the projected value area. And after that? $35,000.