Consecutive monthly volumes continue to drop. Price continues to follow volume flows.

 

Monthly Volume Declines

Total Market Cap Vol

Total Market Cap Vol

Unless we see some significant changes in the current monthly volume for Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin is on track to records it’s fifth consecutive month of lower volume. Ethereum (ETH) is on track to record its fourth straight month of lower volume. Overall though, Ethereum has been recording significantly lower volumes since May. However, there is some discrepancy between the individual charts of Bitcoin, the leading altcoin (Ethereum), and the aggregate cryptocurrency market cap chart. When we look at the volume bars on the total market cap chart, we see a relatively equal distribution of volume during May, June, July, October and November – August and September have noticeable dips in volume. But if we look at December’s current volume on the monthly total market cap chart, we see a significant drop in volume. We are nearly halfway through December, and its just barely above one-third of November’s total volume.

I should point out that while the monthly volume bars are displaying consecutive declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum – a ‘zoomed in’ look to the intraday trading sessions shows there is not of a change with volume as it relates to the significant price action moves. You will observe that nearly the same amounts of heavy volume occur on almost all major drives higher and drive lower. Any of the volume in between these somewhat unusual moves is also very stable. From a time and price perspective, there does not appear to be a major divergence over long term timeframes when we compare how much volume has traded during major moves in the short term.

 

December 18th

One of the odd occurrences that have shockingly not received a significant amount of news is the December 18th deadline for public input on the SEC’s review of the recently rejected Bitwise Bitcoin ETF. The SEC Commission posted a notice on November 18th, 2019, stating (in typical government language) that a review of the SEC’s denial of the Bitwise ETF is being done. This is a very, very odd occurrence. First, there was no disclosure as to why a review is being done. There is no indication of what triggered an investigation of the rejection or who initiated the study. The biggest deal here is that the Commissioners are reviewing the dismissal – and they can overturn that rejection. If that were to occur, then the Bitwise ETF would be the first SEC-approved Bitcoin ETF. And there is a considerable weight that could be given to the probability of the five SEC Commissioners reversing the rejection. Why? Let’s look at who appointed them.

Chairman Jay Clayton – nominated by President Trump.

Commissioner Robert J. Jackson Jr. – appointed by President Trump.

Commissioner Hester M. Pierce – appointed by President Trump.

Commissioner Elad L. Roisman – appointed by President Trump.

Commissioner Allison Herren Lee – Appoint by President Trump

Out of the entire Commission, Commissioner Pierce (aka, Crypto Mom) is an advocate of allowing a Bitcoin ETF because the SEC should not be a gatekeeper. Another highly probable candidate for approving a Bitcoin ETF is Commissioner Roisman. The probability of Roisman voting for approval is in the same vein as Pierce’s: free markets and less government intrusion. Commissioner Jackson is a probably no vote along with Chairman Clayton – although Clayton could very quickly shift to an approval vote. The newest Commissioner, Commissioner Herren-Lee, is the ‘swing vote’ if we were to find one. Commissioner Heren-Lee’s work history is interesting and can yield some assumptions based on that history. She is a veteran of the SEC and worked there for nearly 14 years before she moved to the private sector. She worked for Congress Park Consulting. Congress Park Consulting is not a fan of big banks, so it is possible she would lean towards a big banking alternative. December 18th is the deadline for public comment.