“Time and conditions change so rapidly that we must keep our aim constantly focused on the future.” – Walt Disney

A great many markets are displaying the tops and bottoms – some are at extremes and/or making new extremes. Perhaps the greatest indicator for currency analysis is the condition of the DXY (Dollar Index).

DXY

A very well-played but nasty bull trap of an Inverse Head-And-Shoulders pattern right inside the right shoulder of a Much larger Head-And-Shoulder pattern. If the dollar cracks the neckline, look out below. There needs to be a confirmation of that break though becaues while head and shoulder patterns are among the most profitable patterns when they break the neck line, they are also the most rejected patterns.

 

AUDUSD

 

The Aussie Dollar here is showing a crazy overdone move coming out of a diamond bottom pattern – this might be the best I’ve seen all year. Easy 500 pip move here.

 

Gold

Gold showing the bottom for the year, regaining the 1200 value area. An easy return to the 1232.6 value zone is attainable and then even a return to 1300 is likely.

 

Bitcoin

And finally, Bitcoin. AKA, the Cryptoindex. Quick note: there’s one thing that makes me cautious and that’s the possible formation and creation of a head and shoulders pattern – but its a bottom forming head and shoulders so they’re often rejected. I’ve been writing about the bottom being found back in May and we’ve continued to form consecutive bottom reversal zones. Examples: August 8th reversal date, June 22nd-July 7th, June 18th, etc. All of those posts have been collecting bottoming and reversal zones culminating into one major accumulation zone. The time cycles have been completed and price just needs to catch up.

Now, I’m not a big fundamental trader – news doesn’t matter to me and in fact, news is irrelevant to trends and direction.

News is something inexperienced and novice market participants use to explain the past. News is an excuse. News is a tangible piece of information that makes people feel comfortable when they don’t understand the questions of why, how, and when. News is never a cause of a price trend, it just one of many things that respond to time cycles. 

Saying that, sometimes we get a kind of ‘oh duh’ event that even the layman analyst can identify. This is a YUGE deal: the SEC Commission is going to review the Bitcoin ETF denials. Why is that a big deal? Because the actual commission is reviewing it. It was denied by ‘staffers’. For, pardon my French, shit reasons. The Trump appointee, Commissioner Hester Peirce, wrote one of the most scathing and direct rebuttals and dissenting SEC opinions I’ve ever read. I mean, it excoriated the SEC folks in about as professional and PC way possible – but the meaning was clear:

  1. It is not the SEC’s job to act as a gatekeeper.
  2. This is my favorite: if the denial was based on ‘manipulation’, then why are other ETFs ok? BIG FREAKING DUH! Silver anyone? Currencies anyone? Friggin Oil anyone? Those are ok and Bitcoin isn’t?
  3. The decision sets a dangerous precedent and stifles innovation and creation – the total opposite of the SEC’s purpose.
  4. The Winklevoss ETF met all the criteria worthy of approval.

Listen, she’s not a Bitcoin friend or enemy, she’s a stickler for sticking minimal regulatory intervention in free markets. The other SEC Commissioners are pretty much the same in that regard. It only takes one Commissioner (and there’s only 5) to request a review and a majority to overrule it. Take this into consideration:

Like Trump or not, his SEC nominated Commissioners are big free market, anti-regulatory influence, get the government out of peoples business kind of people. Now the rules are that there can never be more than 3 Commissioners from the same party. But how many of the 5 SEC Commissioners are Trump appointees? 3 of 5.