Key zone ahead for Bitcoin – early bull or final bear
Back on June 28th, I posted an article regarding Bitcoin’s behavior during the Summer months. Prices trade mostly flat to lower during the Summer (this is common in almost every market) for Bitcoin before showing exponential growth in the Fall. Over the 10 year price history of Bitcoin, this has been a constant (with exception of 1 year where prices did not show a rally during the Fall). However, it is not uncommon to see a slow rise beginning in early to mid-July and then extending well into August.
At the time of writing this article (1400 CST), Bitcoin is still trading above the opening price of the Full Moon phase that began on June 27th. Barely. 6133 is the opening trade price of that date and we are trading just above it at the 6170 value area. The New Moon phase begins tonight at 2047 CST. It doesn’t appear that we would be trading above that zone (I wouldn’t consider it above that value area anyway, we’re pretty much flat). What is of importance is the current zone on this chart.
- This is a crazy important level that price is sitting at. We do have a set up for a terrific inverse Head-And-Shoulders pattern off of that Gann angle. We have supportive buying on the 8 hour and 4 hour oscillators, so there is a good probability of supportive buying happening at this level. More important is that we have very oversold conditions on the weekly. However, if we get a daily candlestick that closes below this Gann angle, look out below. Bitcoin follows Gann’s Rule of Angles more often than almost any other chart I have traded. The rule simply states that if price closes and holds above/below an angle, then it will move to test the next angle. And the next angle below here is at the 4200 value zone. I would be surprised if we did trade down to that level though because the 2/8th Major Harmonic (not shown) is at 5041.75.
The biggest case we would have for a break of this 4-month long consolidation move is we see Bitcoin rise in value over this New Moon phase. Remember: Bitcoin likes to sell off during New Moons. If it doesn’t sell off and we instead move higher, then we will more than likely observe 45-days of high prices before a corrective move that would happen right before the Fall bull phase.