The halving event caused expected lower moves for Litecoin. Litecoin continues to bleed lower, nearing 90-days down and eliminating over 50% of the gains it’s had in 2019.

 

Gann and Ichimoku

Litecoin (LTC) Gann Time Cycle Analysis

Litecoin was once the great leader and move of the broader cryptocurrency market this year, surpassing even Bitcoin in the percentage gain. It’s easy to forget that Litecoin was trading at $22.17 back on December 14th, 2018 before rising up towards its 2019 high of $146 on June 22nd, 2019. That move represented a +123.83 gain (+558.55%) over a 190-day period. Fast forward today and we’ve seen Litecoin drop from that high of $146 to the most recent swing low of $62.07 on August 30th, 2019 – a -$89.93 (-54.49%) drop over a 69-day trading period. Litecoin is also trading against the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the June 22nd high to the confirmation swing low of $27.48 on December 27th, 2018. From a Gann perspective, I find this entire more rather normal.

First, and most important, is the confluence of two key dates: The June 22nd high and June 21st. June 21st is one of the most important dates in Gann Analysis – it’s common to see trending markets have some type of corrective move on this date. Second, the 180-day cycle. The 180-day cycle of the inner year in Gann Analysis the second most powerful time cycle of an inner year. It is frequently a level where prices reverse and stop if they are in an established trend after 180-days. Gann said that the 180-day cycle was to be viewed like the 90-day cycle. He said that if something has moved up/down in a fast manner in a 90-day period, then the 90-day period can be extended to 99-days. The same is true for the 180-day cycle, it can extend to 198-days. And so it is not surprising that Litecoin’s rise was halted against the 180-day cycle and the June 21st seasonal date.

And as we look at the current price action, especially the current downtrend move, there is an interesting and almost textbook move occurring. First, price is almost right on top of the 50% Fibonacci retracement in almost 50% of the time of the prior 180-day move (15 more days until exactly 90-days from June 22nd). And in 15-days we are close to another major Gann date: September 23rd. I believe that we could actually see some lower prices where Litecoin would move down to test the $56.83 value area which is the 50% level between the December 14th, 2018 low and the June 22nd, 2019 high. Depending on what occurs first – price hitting $56.83 or trading above $56.83 until September 23rd – I would expect a new bull move very soon.

 

Litecoin Ichimoku Analysis

From an Ichimoku perspective, Litecoin continues to display bearish activity on its daily chart. The current and future Kumo are both very thick and very red, indicating very strong bearish pressure. The Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen are both below the Kumo, with the Tenkan-Sen below the Kijun-Sen: an strong bearish condition. Price is also below the Kumo and below both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun Sen. Perhaps the most damning and bearish indication of some strong selling pressure is the Chikou Span being below the candlesticks and in ‘open space’ – a condition that suggests moving lower is easier and has a lot of momentum behind any move in that direction. The weekly Ichimoku chart, while not show, does have some hints that a bullish move may occur soon, but really just one hint: the Chikou Span remains above the price action and may bounce off the weekly candlesticks. Otherwise, from a weekly Ichimoku perspective, price is trading inside a very thick Kumo with the bottom of the Kumo sharing the same value as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $45.51. If price were to move to that level, then that would represent a -26.53% drop from the current swing low at $62.05.