Multi-Chart and Multi-form Analysis of Bitcoin and the Cryptomarkets – The Past and the Future
The following post is a broad picture of the past and future of cryptocurrencies. I will be focusing on Bitcoin because Bitcoin alone represents more than 50% of the total value of this asset class as well as being the only cryptocurrency that has a Futures market and is being considered for an ETF on the tradition equity markets. This has been an exhaustive process to give some clarity and view of the future – it includes some analysis we have discussed before and some we haven’t – but this is the most concise collection of pure Technical Analysis of Bitcoin I have ever done.
The Pattern that Repeats
Using the earliest data available on Tradingview (I also looked in Optuma and MotiveWave’s history), the very first weeks of Bitcoin’s being traded showed the beginning of a pattern that would repeat itself over the next 8 years. The 4 charts show July 2010, May 2011, November 2013 and December 2017 – dates that represent the ‘major’ moves of an extended phase. what is equally interesting is the appearance of a key and infrequent astronomical phenomena on these dates. The black vertical lines represent the geometrical aspect of the asteroid Chiron 90-degrees of the Sun (Sun Square Chiron). The next date for this aspect is on December 20th, 2018.
The most important support zone so far for Bitcoin was formed at $6100
The horizontal bars on the right side of the above image is Volume-At-Price Analysis (VAP). This differs from regular volume price analysis in that VAP shows how much of something was traded at a particular price. If you look at the very bottom, you may see that the largest VAP peak way down below near the $500 value area (#1). I don’t consider this to be the most important zone for two reasons (refer to the annotations on the chart):
1. It took almost seven years to accumulate that volume at that price and public perception and institutional interaction had not reached significant levels.
2. The next highest volume zone at the$6100 value area (our present trading range) formed over a 1-year period. That means in only 14% of the time it took to create the major support at $500, traders and investors created over 50% of the $500 VAP level.
And I want to point this out as well – regardless of the volume that appears or doesn’t appear on the charts, 90% of the VAP level formed at $6100 was between the months of June 2018 and November 2018. Let that sink in.
The 2018 Bear Market ended in April of 2018
A great majority of the cryptocurrency news sites refer to 2018 as being a Bear Market for Bitcoin. I’ve mostly bit my tongue on that matter, only voicing disagreement during my live trading and education sessions. But I feel it is important to bring this up: the bear market ended in April 2018. When we analyze trends, we identify an uptrend as a market making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is the inverse of this – lower lows and lower highs. When we are discussing Bear or Bull markets, we need to look at the definition differently: Bull markets make higher highs and Bear markets make lower lows. We really need to remove and ignore the traditional equity markets definition of a bear market as it relates to a % move of a market. Bitcoin has lost over 70% of its market capitalization 13 (or 17, depending on how you measure) times since 2010. That’s a normal pattern and behavior for Bitcoin. It sounds odd and strange, but that’s how it is.
Look at the daily 2018 Bitcoin chart above. The annotation #1 on the image above sits at major swing low created in February 2018 (this is also a 90-degree Gann Square of 9 level – also the longitudinal position of Jupiters planetary line). I drew a highlighted green bar across the chart to show that February low zone has held (so far) for all of 2018. Have we poked and tested lower? Sure – but that’s normal. NO NEW LOW STRUCTURE HAS BEEN CREATED SINCE FEBRUARY 2018. The first re-test of this level at the very beginning of April confirmed the Bear market ended and it has been formed around the $6100 value area. And there have been a further 8 attempts to push Bitcoin below that zone and all of those attempts have failed.
The Venus Retro Grade Cycle
I’ve discussed the Venus Retrograde cycle before in other posts. When US equity markets are trading near intra-year highs or near all-time highs when a Venus Retrograde Cycle starts, the markets sell-off. I indicated as much in a trading idea back on September 14th, 2018 and again 3 days before the current Venus Retrograde Cycle. We are currently inside a Venus Retrograde cycle that started on October 5th and ends on November 16th. This cycle is also very important to Bitcoin. The above image shows light blue vertical lines which denote the last day of the Venus Retrograde Cycle for that year/cycle – look at what happens after each Venus Retrograde cycle has occurred for Bitcoin – big drives higher.
Note: Bitcoins behavior during the retrograde cycles varies, as does the length of the initial uptrend after the Venus Retrograde Cycle ends. The only cycle which did not result in a continued drive higher over the next few months was the Dec 2013 cycle – this was the Mt. Gox debacle.
Financial Astrology has adherents who do practice and utilize true astrological interpretation to the financial markets – however, the difference here is that the interpretation of celestial phenomena is based on the events and behaviors on Earth. Think of it this way: All Financial Astrology is astrology, but not all astrology is Financial Astrology. Financial Astrology should really be called Financial Astronomy – because the focus is nearly always on the science of astronomy versus the practice of astrology. Due to my own personal beliefs and religious faith, I am unable and unwilling to practice astrology. However, I am familiar with it and I know how it is applied to financial markets – it is a legitimate form of analysis. I’ll say this much:
Financial Astronomy tells us when something may happen. Financial Astrology provides the color and context of human behavior during that time. I only record the long-term phenomena – and some of it is very… interesting. Consider the chart above. But
In Financial Astrology, Uranus is associated with innovation, change, technology, revolution and nonconformity. But change is the definite thing to associate with Uranus – Gann even wrote about this. Astronomically (the science of astronomy), Uranus is weird. It’s the only planet named after a Greek god as opposed to a Roman god. And it’s like, weird in how it orbits, its got a crazy 98-degree tilt so it rotates sideways.
In Financial Astronomy, Taurus is just a name given to the degrees between 30-degrees and 60-degrees. In Financial Astrology, Taurus (the Bull) is one of the most important ‘signs’. Taurus represents agriculture, food, tradition, finance, money, land, material possessions and stability. When Uranus moves into ‘signs’ things change. Uranus in Aquarius is interpreted as changes in ideas, technology, transmission of information – Uranus in Aquarius happened in the late 90s to the early 2000s.
Uranus in Taurus
I think this needs to be expressed: Uranus and Taurus are total opposites in their behavior. Uranus take around 84-years do a full revolution, so Uranus only shows up in a ‘sign’ every 84-years. The last time Uranus was in Taurus was from 1932 – 1942. I’ll leave you to determine if there’s any meaning in that. The time before that? 1848 – 1856. 1848 – 1856 had the following crap storm of events happen:
1848 was the most wide spread revolutionary wave in European history:
- End of the Louis-Philippe monarchy in France – beginning of the French 2nd Republic.
- End of absolute monarchy in Denmark.
- Hapsburg revolutions.
- March Revolution in Germany.
- Hungarian Revolution – this ended up with the creation of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
But there was more all over the world. And when we extend into the first half of the 1850s, we get these wonderful events:
- Miao Rebellion in China.
- ‘Bleeding Kansas’ – slave/no slave State civil unrest, fuel to a fire leading to the Civil War.
- Crimean War.
- Opium War (1856-1860).
- Panic of 1857 – let me know if this sounds familiar: worldwide economic crisis, declining international economy, over-expansion of the domestic economy, commercial credit non-existant, agricultural and farming prices plummet.
And 84 years before that? 1764 – 1772.
- Pretty much every little thing you could do to piss off 13 colonies was done in this time.
Ok, so what are you saying? What does that have to do with Uranus and Taurus?
In Financial Astrology, there are few things that take precedent over a slow moving planet into a new sign. When planets move into a sign, things happen. Taurus represents stability, finance and the agriculture. Uranus is the harbinger of change. When Uranus enter Taurus, things change. That’s a light way of putting it. End of stability and the status quo. In the image below, the yellow vertical highlighted zones represent Uranus moving into Taurus. It’s split up because Uranus goes retrograde. If you look at the pink and yellow above, that tells us when Uranus leaves Aries (0-30 degrees) and entered Taurus on September 3rd, 2018 and lasts until August 21st, 2021.
We will see a stock market that suffers extreme shock in 2020, with a panic cycle ocuring and a massive loss in value with the bottom being found in 2021 – more than likely in August of 2021. The change we will see is a capitulation of the fiat currency and the normalization of a new commodity:
Cryptocurrencies – the harbinger of growth and pain
Cryptocurrencies will change everything – along with the blockchain technology. We all know that, nothing I am going to say here is going to surprise anyone and I’m pretty sure nothing I am writing is original. Thinking of Taurus as representing money, finance, personal property and stability – Uranus is warning of the change in those things. Using common sense I can see the following occuring or changing to:
- Digital currency as the standard for emerging market nations.
- Broad digitization of personal property.
- Traditional stock exchange infrastructure changing to being managed and trasnacted across the blockchain.
- Proof-of-ownership related to State control and authentication of property (China is already doing this).
- Broad adoption of ‘rice seed’ chips to store personal information and financial information – no more wallets!
- A type of water or food related crisis naturally removes people from living in large urban environments to a flight to rural zones.
- Revolutions and wars among autocratic and despotic nations, they can’t control cryptocurrencies or keep them out of the hands of normal people (Venezuela, as an example).
That’s all nice and all, but what about Bitcoin? When do we see the moon?
Like I wrote last week, we should see the beginnings of that next expansion phase between November 1st – November 5th. That’s happening right now. The board is set and the pieces are moving.
I still maintain the 2018 target utilizing Financial Astrology and Gann’s work, the details are in this trade idea on Tradingview. Those price zones capable of being hit this year are: