Predicted Bitcoin Low of 6580 – will it hold?
My article on October 2nd, 2019, showed the low of this range is around the 6580 value area. Price action will need to confirm the 6500 value area as support.
A look at the past
On October 2nd, 2019, I wrote about applying Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci measurements to determine essential price levels for Bitcoin in the future. The chart above is Bitcoin’s chart from October 2nd. I wrote: “The dotted line represents the forecasted price level and date range that I expect Bitcoin to move to the 6580 value area in late October 2019/Early November 2019.” I didn’t get the time right, but the price zone was: “… projected low of 6580.” I limited my analysis at the time to identify the swing levels that would be necessary for the Elliot Wave structure above to play out. I want to expand a little more on why the 6580 value area was used to identify as a low.
2018 major support tested
Throughout almost the entirety of the 2018 bear market, the 6500 value area was the primary support level for Bitcoin. For nine and a half months, the 6000 to 6500 value area held as support. The 6000 – 6500 support level held until the middle of November 2018 when Bitcoin experienced the single most substantial weekly loss since the Mt. Gox debacle. If you put it into the perspective of the market mood at the late 2013 Mt. Gox highs – it’s almost silly how much Bitcoin sold off last November. Speaking of weekly candlesticks: It’s not even 24-hour since Bitcoin’s new weekly candlestick was printed, and the weekly volume is already over a quarter of last week’s volume! From a daily volume perspective, at the time of writing this article (1400 EST), Bitcoin has another five hours until this daily candlestick closes. The daily volume is currently at 17.892k. Sunday’s (November 24th, 2019) volume was 6.047k, and Saturday’s volume was 5.55k. Monday’s current volume is roughly three times either Sunday or Saturday’s volume and is more significant than Sunday and Saturday combined.
The real question is: is this a reversal? Is this the start of the next impulse wave higher? It could be. There’s a significant confluence zone of Gann Cycles of the Inner Year between today and early December. Today is 30-days from the initial noise pump on October 25th. It’s 90-days from the August 29th swing low and 152-days (144-day cycle) from the June 26th, 2019 yearly high. December 10th was 360-days from the Bear market low on December 15th, 2018. Typically a reversal needs to be confirmed by volume. How much volume is subjective, but generally, it should be more than twice the 20-day average (I use a 30-day) and higher than the previous five trading days. Except for Friday’s volume pump and dump, today’s volume easily dwarfs any volume since October 26th. The range of the daily candle is exceptional as well. After driving down to 6515, it has since rallied back to 7244 – a +11.20% gain from the daily (and new 5-month) low. For there to be a more clear sign of a reversal, we need to see committed buying step in. We need to see two more days of large candlesticks rejecting lower movement – otherwise, we are probably going to see another broken relief rally.