The flu really stinks. When you are self-employed and trading is your career, you don’t get sick days. As much as I wanted to work and tough it out, my wife sequestered me from any electronics except for the TV. But it was kind of nice to take a breather and get some perspective back on these markets. There are really two scenarios at these levels in Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum. One very bullish, the other very bearish.
Bitcoin – Bullish Bias
If we look at the big move from back in August of 2017 all the way into December to our all-time high of $19,898, we can consider that the first primary impulse wave in Elliot Wave theory. The second wave, the corrective wave ended back on the low established on February 5th/6th. If that is the case, then this rally from those lows is just the beginning of the third leg/impulse drive beyond the $20,000 value area.
Bitcoin – Bearish Bias
It is entirely possible that we have a down move all the way down towards the $4,000 value area. The analysis used to analyze and target this area is based on Elliot Waves. If this scenario is to play out, then we have just started the 5th leg down.
Ethereum – Bullish Bias
Ethereum Provides us with similar structure as Bitcoin. Again, if we consider the rise to the all-time highs in Ethereum as the first impulse wave and the lows of the year back in February are the end of a second corrective wave, then the third wave is well beyond our current valuation, past the 2400 zone.
Ethereum – Bearish Bias
The bearish move on Ethereum is a very, very scary scenario. Again, if the most recent top we just experienced in this bounce from the lows is the second corrective wave (in a down move), then the third leg is below us. Way below us at around $147.
Litecoin – Bullish Bias
Seeing a pattern here? I hope so. The long-term structural differences on these charts are not big. Litecoin is probably the strongest candidate we have for a continued move to the top. It is currently providing us with the best technical evidence for this third impulse wave move. This brings us up towards the $700 value area.
Litecoin – Bearish Bias
Although the line doesn’t show it (not sure why!), the third corrective wave (letter C) goes all the way down to 319.8. This is a bias we have from the all-time high of 420.
What does this all mean?
We have two strong candidates for a long-term trend. The trick is to identify criteria that would turn the markets towards either of these scenarios. What is the path of least resistance? Up. From Gann’s time cycles to just plain old news, there is a crazy amount of bullishness and power behind increased prices in the entire cryptocurrency sphere.