Because our downside risk is limited (any hold below the trend line of 7400 would be a total capitulation of cryptocurrencies), we can safely identify and plan an entry for Bitcoin. And that area is coming up very soon.

For the purposes of finding an entry, I will use the Ichimoku system. Before I buy/enter a long position, there are four rules that need to be met before that can happen.

  • The Conversion Line (Blue Line) must be greater than the Base Line (Red Line).
  • The cloud in front of price must be bullish (green mass).
  • The Lagging Span (Black Line) must be above the cloud.
  • Price must be above the cloud.

31618btcLooking at this hourly chart we can see a couple conditions that are currently being met for an entry on the hourly chart.

  1. The Conversion Line (blue line) is above the Base Line (red line).
  2. The cloud in front of has turned bullish (green).

In order for a long entry, we need to make sure that the Lagging Span (3) is above the cloud. It is above the candlesticks, so that is a good indication we will soon have that signal. We also need to have price above the cloud. The most probable entry area is going to be the 8600-8700 value area.


A look at the daily chart

31618btcdailyOn the daily chart, we see only one condition being met out of the four: the cloud has changed color to green (3).

One of the greatest and most important (in my opinion, it is the most important) aspects of the Ichimoku system is that it tells you when not to trade. The Lagging Span (2) is below the cloud and has been bobbing above and below the candlesticks. The Conversion Line and the Base Line are inside the cloud. Price is still below the cloud.

But there are some bullish indications. There is a clear pivot that has formed (1) with significant and confirmatory volume. We also have a bullish divergence between price and the oscillator (4). Based on the daily chart, the entry area for Bitcoin will more than likely be above the 10,500 value area.